Extraordinary events have forever pushed and pulled and pressured U.S. population shifts from gold lust to the citrus rush to the restless return of WWII soldiers to revolutions in foreign lands and civil war on southern soil.
Now there is COVID-19, which has turned a years-long trickle to Florida from the northeast into a deluge.
More than 547,000 people exchanged out-of-state driver’s licenses last year for ones with Sunshine State Adresses. That’s a 40% increase from 2020 and nearly 20% greater than the five-year average between 2017 and 2021.
The license swaps — largely from New York (11%), New Jersey (6%) and foreign countries (14%) — are acutely felt in Florida real estate markets where inventory is anemic and prices aggressive.
Demographers believe the relocations are no tropical dalliance because a driver’s license switch is a sign of determination to make Florida home even if hurricane season and August's sweltering humidity are spent in cooler climes away from storms and sticky air.
“Unquestionably the COVID impact was the trigger,” said Related Cos. President Ken Himmel about the influx of people and businesses to Florida and Palm Beach County specifically. “Unquestionably, COVID turned the switch on full blast.”
While the bullseye markets, such as Palm Beach County, may experience the ache of rising rents and home prices until inventory increases, growth experts were reluctant to say the COVID migration on a nationwide scale will make history.
Some move to the suburbs was already happening as millennials age. A bump in retirees was also expected, although it was likely expedited by the Great Resignation/Retirement, the euphemism signaling massive waves of frustrated workers and Baby Boomers exiting the job market.
Vanderbilt University Assistant Finance Professor Peter Haslag said COVID-related dispersions are more geographically diverse than past migrations, diluting long-term impacts.
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